Gridiron Challenge: Week 4 preview

By Tristan H. Cockcroft
ESPN.com
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When it comes to the pool of matchups, folks, this is your toughest week.

Six teams are on bye, the only time that many teams will be off in a week all season. From next week through Week 10, it's four apiece. That's manageable, and it's certainly not as draining on the player pool as this week.

But it could have been a lot worse.

Twenty-two of the 108 overall players (20.4 percent) priced 5.0 or higher in the Gridiron Challenge are on bye this week. Of those 22, though, only four actually increased in value thanks to their Week 3 exploits: Joseph Addai (from 6.1 to 6.4), Ronnie Brown (5.5 to 5.9), Rudi Johnson (4.7 to 5.1) and Julius Jones (5.6 to 5.9). Doesn't sound like any devastating losses there, does it? It's not like the Colts, Dolphins, Lions, Patriots or Seahawks were doing anything earth-shattering in the GC besides. As for the Giants, well, at least none of them priced themselves into the stratosphere the first three weeks.

In a way, consider this a one-week rental opportunity, since clearly it's not so bad to let your modestly priced player go, then scoop him back up after this week if you so choose. To think, a year ago people were racking their brains when Tom Brady's bye rolled around. This year, there's no one you'll regret losing at a similarly low locked-in price.

Here's the other little twist to it being time for the bye weeks: Once they pass, that's a guaranteed every-week schedule for the team in question. One week from now, you'll no longer need to fret about needing a one-week replacement for six teams, and in the GC, that's a good thing. A very good thing. It creates long-term investment opportunities.

Keep these two guys in mind to nab in Week 5, fresh off their byes:

Eli Manning, QB, Giants (6.6 price tag): I know it's selective statistics, but Manning has a 2-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio in the month of October, and 1.9-to-1 in the first eight games of the season for his career, which says to me that he's at his best before the weather cools. Manning is making good use of what some think is a limited weapons arsenal, and check out his first three matchups coming out of the bye: Seahawks, Browns, 49ers. Wow is that a favorable schedule.

Randy Moss, WR, Patriots (5.9): Mark it down, this is the lowest his price tag can possibly get all season. If there's one thing we know, it's that an unhappy Moss means an unhappy team, so the Patriots are sure to keep him heavily involved in the game plan, Tom Brady or no Tom Brady. New England draws the 49ers, Chargers, Broncos and Rams coming out of the bye, secondaries he can easily beat deep.

Another one, but you'll have to wait the extra week:

Plaxico Burress, WR, Giants (5.7): His one-game suspension comes at a poor time, with the Seahawks, who have given the Giants fits in the recent past, first up on the schedule after their bye. But if Burress is to miss any of his team's next three games, that's the one I'd pick fantasy-wise because he's capable of shredding the Cleveland and San Francisco secondaries in Weeks 6-7. And when I look long-term, the only matchups that truly trouble me in Burress' remaining schedule come in Weeks 8 (Steelers) and 11 (Ravens).

Bull market: Invest now

Reggie Bush, RB, Saints (6.4 price tag): Now the Saints have Marques Colston and Jeremy Shockey on the shelf, and David Patten might join them if his groin doesn't improve before Sunday. If you thought Bush's 11 receptions on 14 targets in Week 3 were an aberration, you're wrong. He's going to be worked comparably hard these next few weeks against the 49ers, Vikings and Raiders.

Jonathan Stewart, RB, Panthers (5.1): The Carolina papers are already speculating that with Ryne Robinson nearing his return from a knee injury, Panthers coach John Fox might consider inserting Robinson into Stewart's role on special teams, allowing the rookie to take on additional work in the running game. It's a proposition that makes sense, considering Stewart has averaged 4.7 yards per carry with three touchdowns to DeAngelo Williams' 3.7 yards per carry and zero touchdowns. Just as important as those numbers: Stewart has all three of Carolina's goal-line carries this season, and he has driven all three home for scores. If his number of rushing attempts doesn't increase soon, Fox should be accused of being undeservedly too loyal to his veterans. Even Fox has to have his breaking point.

LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, Chargers (6.5): It was a Week 6 matchup against the Raiders that got Tomlinson's 2007 season back on track, as he raced for 198 yards and four scores. From that point forward he averaged 130 total yards per game with 15 scores in an 11-game span, very LT-like. I'm not saying a repeat is any guarantee; we just don't know for certain Tomlinson's toe injury is completely behind him. If it is, well, this week's matchup versus Oakland could similarly jump-start his 2008 season, especially with another cakewalk matchup at Miami right behind it.

One-week ponies: Week 4

Trent Edwards, QB, Bills (@STL, 5.7 price tag): I absolutely love this matchup, but let's talk about Edwards for a second, shall we? Through three games he has a 3-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, a 7.8 yards-per-attempt average and a 96.6 passer rating. They're not great numbers, but certainly a step up from his 2007 stats (0.88-to-1, 6.1 and 70.4). He's starting to figure things out at this level, becoming an effective game manager and even developing a decent amount of chemistry with Lee Evans. And with the Rams allowing 272.3 passing yards per week, with seven touchdowns, through the air, I can't help but great things are in store for Edwards. Heck, if Matt Hasselbeck, whose receivers combined pale in comparison to Evans, managed 12 points against this defense a week ago.

Lee Evans, WR, Bills (@STL, 5.1): Obviously if I like Edwards, it stands to reason I like Evans, too. Rams coach Scott Linehan is in desperation stage with his defense. Case in point: cornerback Tye Hill has gone from starter to backup to starter in a matter of three weeks. Linehan also slotted in a new linebacker (Chris Draft), defensive tackle (Clifton Ryan) and defensive end (Victor Adeyanju) during Wednesday's practice, so it's not like change has been limited solely to the secondary. Constant roster shuffling is never a good sign; it makes the phrase "Swiss-cheese defense" literally applicable.

Jamal Lewis, RB, Browns (@CIN, 5.4): The Browns' offense might be a mess right now, but point your finger at Derek Anderson, not Lewis, when assessing blame. Ankle and hamstring injuries, as well as brutal matchups, dogged Lewis in each of the past three weeks, but this one, by comparison, is a lay-up. In 13 career games against the Bengals, he has averaged 119.3 rushing yards with 10 total touchdowns, including a 216-yard, 1-TD effort in Week 2 last season. And it's not like Cincinnati's run defense has gotten better defensively since then; it ranks 28th (174.3 yards per game) with four touchdowns allowed this season.

J.T. O'Sullivan, QB, 49ers (@NO, 5.7): I'm limiting this pick to one-week status because I'm not quite ready to buy in for the long haul on Mike Martz's quarterback, not with matchups against the Patriots, Eagles and Giants to follow this one, and especially not with Frank Gore clearly the centerpiece of the offense. But this week, in a road game against the Saints, a skilled offensive team, I could see the 49ers forced into passing situations more often than normal, and that's a good matchup for a guy tossing the ball maybe 40 times. After all, while Mike McKenzie is now healthy for New Orleans, fellow cornerback Randall Gay (hamstring) remains nicked up, softening the secondary.

Chris Perry, RB, Bengals (CLE, 4.9): Load up on running backs in the Browns-Bengals contest in Week 4 because both starters will be going up against the other's bottom-10 run defense (Browns 25th, 145.0 yards per game; Bengals 28th, 174.3). Perry actually has two of Cincinnati's three touchdowns all season, and in Week 3 he amassed 61 yards and a touchdown on nine touches in the first half alone, helped by an improved effort from his offensive line. With back-to-back weeks with a score, Perry is in the midst of a hot enough streak that he'd make a good No. 2 in a weak that is thin on alternatives.

Tristan's Week 4 lineup

Total points: 289.
Percentage: 61.5. Overall rank: 68,496th.
Ranking in Fantasy Editorial Group: 933rd.

Now that's more like it.

A 123-point Week 3 has me back on track, admittedly with a long way to go to get back into contention. I'm still stinging from that 66-point opening week, but let's face it, my percentile ranking has gone from 18.4 to 33.6 to now 61.5, and that's steady improvement. My goal for this week: Crack 75 percent, with my eye on 80.

Problem is, I'll need much better production from my receiving corps to get there. Through three weeks, my two wide receiver spots and my tight end have totaled 40 points. That's no typo. Check out these four players, who combined to eat up six of the nine lineup spots I've used between the two positions thus far:

• Plaxico Burress is on bye in Week 4, then suspended for Week 5.

• Marques Colston got hurt in Week 1 and is out until well into October.

Santonio Holmes ranks as one of fantasy's biggest busts through three weeks.

• Jeremy Shockey is now out three to six weeks while recovering from sports hernia surgery.

Bad luck? A "Cockcroft Curse?" I'll leave that to you to decide. One thing I can say: If this is the week Anquan Boldin, Lee Evans or Tony Scheffler goes quiet or gets hurt, sorry Anquan, Lee and Tony, it certainly was not my intention.

Pos.PlayerTeamPointsLockMkt.Diff.
QBJay CutlerBroncos706.76.80.1
QBKurt WarnerCardinals525.56.10.6
RBFrank Gore49ers576.66.90.3
RBMichael TurnerFalcons665.76.10.4
WRAnquan BoldinCardinals485.85.8--
WRLee EvansBills235.15.1--
TETony SchefflerBroncos285.05.0--
KMatt PraterBroncos284.44.4--
D/STTennessee Titans defense/special teams625.15.90.8
Pos.: Player position; Points: Year-to-date points earned in GC; Lock: Price locked in on my roster; Mkt.: Current market price; Diff.: Difference in price.

Tristan H. Cockcroft is a fantasy baseball, football and hockey analyst for ESPN.com. You can e-mail him here.



 
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